The Institute for National Strategic Studies serves as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and defense strategy issues.
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Jan. 25, 2023
The Realist Case for Ukraine
January 25, 2023 — Despite US support and Ukrainian valor, the war is now approaching a second year, and several observers in the United States and in Europe have become increasingly alarmed at the consequence of a longer war. None of these concerns should be dismissed out of hand. Each, however, rests on problematic assumptions. The realist case for aiding Ukraine accepts Mearsheimer’s insight about the tragic structural nature of international politics, particularly the danger of a sustained period of great-power competition with both Russia and China—as well as the continued threat that Vladimir Putin’s Russia poses to peace and stability in Europe. It acknowledges that Ukraine’s resilience and ingenuity provide an opportunity to, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put it “weaken Russia” and reshape the global balance of power in favor of the United States and its allies.
Jan. 17, 2023
The PLA's Strategic Support Force and AI Innovation
If China’s strategic ambitions for AI are clear, how it intends to integrate AI into the PLA remains opaque. The CCP’s goals for militarized AI are still shrouded in mystery, even as the PLA clearly views AI as a technology that will be vital for driving next-generation warfare. Our research into the SSF took a deep dive into open-source information, convened subject matter experts, and looked to scholarly analysis to form a more precise understanding of what role the SSF might be playing in the PLA’s AI innovation—and what role it definitely is not.
Jan. 9, 2023
Let's Make a Deal? Ukraine and the Poor Prospects for Negotiations with Putin
Ukraine has defied expectations and admirably defended its sovereignty. It still has quite a way to go to eject Vladimir Putin’s armed forces and hirelings. A bitter frozen conflict could last for some time despite the tenacious and creative defense of Ukraine’s determined military. But it is time to start thinking about the end game. Sketching out the compromises and hard choices for Russia’s termination of its “Special Military Operation” is not an exercise in optimism or wishful thinking. Understanding what the West desires out of this conflict and what is the objective in terms of relations with a defeated Russia is a clear strategic question for US policymakers at this point in time.
Jan. 3, 2023
American Defense Priorities After Ukraine
Even though the war will continue into next year, and perhaps beyond, it is time to begin assessing longer-term implications for modern warfare, especially in Europe. It is not too early in this age to draw inferences about how the character of warfare is changing. How can NATO and the United States adapt to best ensure Europe’s stability and advance U.S. interests?
Dec. 12, 2022
America's Great-Power Challenge: Managing Russia's Decline and China's Rise
Russia is in strategic trouble. Vladimir Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s global posture and eroded the carefully honed image of great-power prowess Putin cultivated for two decades. But Russia’s loss of relative power is not necessarily America’s gain. Modern geopolitics has returned to the framework of past multipolar, great-power competitions, the last of which was contested prior to World War II. American policymakers must help manage Moscow’s strategic malpractice in a manner that does not harm Washington’s prospects for success in the long-term Sino-American rivalry.
Dec. 4, 2022
Europe Has to Step Up on Ukraine to Keep the U.S. from Stepping Back
Tensions over the war in Ukraine have relaxed since the U.S. midterm congressional elections but could ramp up again if Europe continues to fall behind the U.S. when it comes to providing financial and military support for Kyiv.
Woman, Life, Freedom in Iran
Among young Iranians engaging in sustained protest, fear and caution have turned to resentment and anger, and a feeling that they have nothing to lose.
A South China Sea Conflict and the ROK's Cooperation with the United States
Considering the ROK's regional cooperation with the U.S., mutual solidarity with ASEAN countries, and the SLOC security in the South China Sea, the ROK will support U.S. diplomatic efforts to bolster international norms in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the ROK might be cautious about its full-blown or military support to the U.S., which could result in China's diplomatic protests and economic reprisals.
A South China Sea Conflict and the U.S.-ROK Alliance
China’s “gray zone” tactics to intimidate rival claimants in the South China Sea have become a U.S. concern. Against a backdrop of a recently deepening U.S.– Philippines alliance, this article suggested a gray zone conflict scenario in which China blockades Filipino resupply vessels for Filipino marines on the Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal in a fictional late 2020s environment.
Xi's New Central Military Commission: A War Council for Taiwan?
A key result of the 20th Party Congress was the reappointment of Xi Jinping as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the selection of new CMC members. Some have argued that the new military brass indicates a greater inclination by Xi to use force against Taiwan, but the evidence does not support this view.