This mid-decade review of contemporary Great Power competition is most welcome because it presents U.S. political leadership and the national security community with an opportunity to reflect on the inherent challenges in this latest round of geopolitical rivalry. Although the turn toward contestation among the United States, China, and Russia (as well as others) was formally acknowledged by Washington first in its 2017 National Security Strategy, Great Power competition had never disappeared from the international system even during the halcyon days after the Cold War’s ending.

Distant reaches of space loom as a strategic horizon. The vast majority of space operations have, so far, been limited to a few families of near-Earth orbits. However, space beyond geostationary Earth orbit, or xGEO, is likely to become important for strategic purposes in the near future. This is especially true of cislunar space, that region of space in which the gravity of Earth’s moon is significant. This paper refers to xGEO and cislunar space as Space Frontier Areas, since missions there have not yet reached sufficient scale to cluster into patterns of use.

This Defense Threat Reduction Agency study assesses the prospects and implications of China’s adoption of a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture for U.S. national security objectives. It evaluates China’s ability to adopt a LOW posture, identifies the key design decisions, examines what a Chinese LOW posture might look like, and assesses the implications and identifies potential mitigation measures.

This report assesses recent Chinese thinking on countering U.S. intervention in Asia, specifically in a Taiwan contingency.