Publications

Dec. 4, 2022

A South China Sea Conflict and the ROK's Cooperation with the United States

Considering the ROK's regional cooperation with the U.S., mutual solidarity with ASEAN countries, and the SLOC security in the South China Sea, the ROK will support U.S. diplomatic efforts to bolster international norms in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the ROK might be cautious about its full-blown or military support to the U.S., which could result in China's diplomatic protests and economic reprisals.

Dec. 4, 2022

A South China Sea Conflict and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

China’s “gray zone” tactics to intimidate rival claimants in the South China Sea have become a U.S. concern. Against a backdrop of a recently deepening U.S.– Philippines alliance, this article suggested a gray zone conflict scenario in which China blockades Filipino resupply vessels for Filipino marines on the Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal in a fictional late 2020s environment.

Dec. 4, 2022

Xi's New Central Military Commission: A War Council for Taiwan?

A key result of the 20th Party Congress was the reappointment of Xi Jinping as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the selection of new CMC members. Some have argued that the new military brass indicates a greater inclination by Xi to use force against Taiwan, but the evidence does not support this view.

Dec. 4, 2022

Virtual and Physical Realities: Violent Extremists’ Recruitment of Individuals Associated with the US Military

INSS’s Kim Cragin’s new article, Virtual and Physical Realities, compares five case studies from the white power and militia movements to learn how violent extremists attempt to attract new members. The findings suggest that (1) recruitment occurs through iterative interactions in virtual and physical spaces; (2) these individuals shift between movements; and (3) little divergence exists between civilian and military recruits.

Nov. 2, 2022

Can the West Manage Russia’s Decline?

Success in long-term great power competition with China requires that Washington address the strategic implications of Russian decline with a calculus befitting today’s multipolar environment.

Oct. 26, 2022

Joint Force Quarterly 107 (4th Quarter, 2022)

With this 107th edition of the Chairman’s journal, we invite you to comment on war, peace, and the in-between, as that is where you will always find the joint force.

Oct. 21, 2022

Addressing the Threats of Emerging Biotechnologies

We have noted with interest the pivot in U.S. biodefense programs published in National Defense recently as the United States and other nations strive to keep pace with emerging biotechnology capabilities that complicate the threat landscape. We support such activities and propose some additional approaches toward threat mitigation that we believe are critical to national and global biosecurity and defense.

Oct. 11, 2022

As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils

In trying and failing to reclaim Russian imperial influence over Ukraine, Moscow is actively accelerating the decline of its influence throughout Eurasia, including the former Soviet countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Perceiving the fragility of Russian power, governments across the region have begun creating facts on the ground in ways that Russia’s post-imperial power long prevented.

Sept. 30, 2022

PRISM Vol. 10, No. 1 (September 2022)

PRISM Vol. 10, No. 1 is now online.

Sept. 19, 2022

Deconstructing the Collapse of Afghanistan National Security and Defense Forces

The rapid collapse of Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in August 2021 was widely anticipated and due to its structural constraints and qualitative decline from 2018–21. This article provides a targeted analysis of ANDSF operational liabilities and qualitative limitations, referencing often overlooked statements by US and Afghan political and military officials, data from official US government reports, and prescient NGO field analyses. The painful ANDSF experience illuminates several principles that must be considered as US policymakers turn toward security force assistance for proxy and surrogate military forces in conflict with the partners of America’s emerging great-power geostrategic competitors—China and Russia.