May 1, 2024

The Middle East and the Ukraine War: Between Fear and Opportunity

April 30, 2024 — While the ambivalence among Middle Eastern states about the war in Ukraine stems from multiple sources, Russian influence is a significant, if underappreciated, factor. Several of these countries see Moscow as an external balancer and hedge against the possibility of a broader US pullback from the region. At the same time, Russia maintains significant coercive capabilities thanks to its military presence in Syria and burgeoning strategic partnership with Iran. Many aspiring regional powers are also sympathetic to Moscow's calls for an international order less centered on the West. This article analyzes these concerns and perceptions, and it shows how they have shaped the way states in the region have responded to the invasion of Ukraine. Broadly speaking, these states see it as a peripheral concern—especially following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023—though one that could destabilize the region by stoking inflation or further emboldening Iran. While they are wary of confronting Moscow or facing regional instability, many also directly benefit from Russia's economic decoupling from the West. These countries share President Vladimir Putin's assessment that the war in Ukraine is inaugurating a new age more friendly to middle powers.

April 7, 2024

Rising to the Challenge: Taiwan's Response to a New Era China

A new INSS Working Paper analyzes Taiwan’s policy toward Mainland China during the Tsai Ing-wen administration and assesses prospects for cross-Strait relations under Taiwan president-elect Lai Ching-te.

April 1, 2024

Xi’s Cross-Strait Policy in the “New Era”

Since the transition from Chinese leader Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping in November 2012, the key principle underlying Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan—that the island is not independent and is an immutable part of China which must ultimately be “reunified” with the mainland—has remained consistent. However, in the last eight years since the inauguration of President Tsai Ing-wen of the Taiwan-centric Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in May 2016, Beijing’s rhetoric, policies, and actions toward the island have changed and ramped up considerably. Following the election in January 2024 of Tsai’s vice president, Lai Ching-te (William Lai) who is also with the DPP, Xi’s New Era will likely make the Taiwan Strait an increasingly tense and dangerous environment, with potentially significant consequences for U.S. policy and strategy both there and throughout the Indo-Pacific.

March 7, 2024

The Russo-Chinese Alliance and Great Power Competition with Dr. Tom Lynch

March 7, 2024 — Dr. Tom Lynch offers us a Great Power Competition understanding of the evolving Russo-Chinese strategic partnership on the Georgetown University “Diplomatic Immunity” podcast. His 30-minute podcast conversation, posted on March 7, 2024, tells us why China and Russia now appear more strategically aligned than they actually are and why they are not destined to be formal allies into the future.

March 6, 2024

America’s New Twilight Struggle With Russia

March 6, 2024 — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Washington to rethink its fundamental assumptions about Moscow. Every U.S. president from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden had sought some degree of engagement with Russia. As late as 2021, Biden expressed hope that Russia and the United States could arrive at “a stable, predictable relationship.” But Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine has radically altered that assessment. It is now clear that the two countries will remain antagonists for years to come. The Kremlin possesses immense disruptive global power and is willing to take great risks to advance its geopolitical agenda. Coping with Russia will demand a long-term strategy, one that echoes containment, which guided the United States through the Cold War, or what President John F. Kennedy called a “long, twilight struggle” against the Soviet Union.

March 4, 2024

Lessons and Legacies of the War in Ukraine: Conference Report

The international conference titled “Lessons and Legacies of the War in Ukraine” took place on November 17, 2023, at the National Defense University in Washington, DC. Hosted by the University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, the conference brought together perspectives from practitioners in the U.S. Government and uniformed military, along with experts from academia and the think tank community in the United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Taiwan, to discuss the lessons that the United States and its allies should take from the first year and a half of the effort to repel Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Feb. 24, 2024

CSR's Dr. Tom Lynch Participates in the Inaugural Quad Think Tank Forum

24 February — Dr. Tom Lynch participated in the Inaugural Quad Think Tank Forum in New Delhi, India.

Feb. 23, 2024

CSR's Dr. Tom Lynch Participates in the Ninth Annual Raisina Dialogue

21-23 February — Dr. Tom Lynch participated in several panel breakouts in the Ninth Annual Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, India.

Feb. 15, 2024

Joint Force Quarterly 112 (1st Quarter, 2024)

The only way we can change is to help each other to see the need to do so and then suggest a proper path to that new future. We need you to help be a good wingman and show us how to succeed.

Jan. 12, 2024

Taiwan’s January 2024 Elections: What You Need to Know

Introducing the three presidential candidates and reviewing four factors likely to shape the outcome.