China’s “gray zone” tactics to intimidate rival claimants in the South China Sea have become a U.S. concern. Against a backdrop of a recently deepening U.S.-Philippines alliance, this article suggested a gray zone conflict scenario in which China blockades Filipino resupply vessels for Filipino marines on the Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal in a fictional late 2020s environment. In this case, the Philippines would likely request armed U.S. escorts for its resupply vessel. The United States. can formulate a middle-of-the-road position centered on diplomatic condemnation against China’s provocations, between a strong response option and inaction to this gray zone conflict. Also, in this context, the United States would welcome the ROK’s diplomatic and economic support. For example, the United States would expect the ROK to participate in U.S. diplomatic efforts by signing a joint statement through the Quad-Plus. In addition, the United States would also anticipate ROK assistance to help the Philippines cope with Chinese economic retaliation in the gray zone crisis.
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Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. He is the lead editor of Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (NDU Press, 2022). The views expressed are the authors own and do not reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.