July 11, 2023

Proxy Wars and Strategic Competition

Routledge — This chapter of the Routledge Handbook of Proxy Wars (Eds. Assaf Moghadam, Vladimir Rauta, Michael Wyss) explores the character of proxy wars through the lens of great power competition, where conventional warfare remains a major concern given its potentially catastrophic consequences.

April 5, 2023

Game-changers: Implications of the Russo-Ukraine War for the Future of Ground Warfare

What does the record of combat in the year since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine herald about the future character of ground war?

March 1, 2023

For Xi and China, Putin's War is a Geopolitical Minefield

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended international politics and scrambled the strategic calculations of many states, few more seriously than China. Beijing is now scrambling to limit the fallout of the conflict on its core strategic and economic interests.

Feb. 2, 2023

The Inhospitable Sea: Toward a New U.S. Strategy for the Black Sea Region

The Black Sea region (BSR) has become a central fault line in the strategic competition between Russia and the West. The war in Ukraine is forcing the United States and NATO to devote more attention to the region, one which NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recognized has “vital strategic importance” to the alliance.

Jan. 31, 2023

China's Indo-Pacific Folly

Beijing’s ambition to isolate Washington from its Asian allies has been derailed in large part by its desire to redress more immediate grievances—namely, to reclaim what it sees as lost territory and punish countries that offend its sensibilities.

Jan. 25, 2023

The Realist Case for Ukraine

January 25, 2023 — Despite US support and Ukrainian valor, the war is now approaching a second year, and several observers in the United States and in Europe have become increasingly alarmed at the consequence of a longer war. None of these concerns should be dismissed out of hand. Each, however, rests on problematic assumptions. The realist case for aiding Ukraine accepts Mearsheimer’s insight about the tragic structural nature of international politics, particularly the danger of a sustained period of great-power competition with both Russia and China—as well as the continued threat that Vladimir Putin’s Russia poses to peace and stability in Europe. It acknowledges that Ukraine’s resilience and ingenuity provide an opportunity to, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put it “weaken Russia” and reshape the global balance of power in favor of the United States and its allies.

Jan. 9, 2023

Let's Make a Deal? Ukraine and the Poor Prospects for Negotiations with Putin

Ukraine has defied expectations and admirably defended its sovereignty. It still has quite a way to go to eject Vladimir Putin’s armed forces and hirelings. A bitter frozen conflict could last for some time despite the tenacious and creative defense of Ukraine’s determined military. But it is time to start thinking about the end game. Sketching out the compromises and hard choices for Russia’s termination of its “Special Military Operation” is not an exercise in optimism or wishful thinking. Understanding what the West desires out of this conflict and what is the objective in terms of relations with a defeated Russia is a clear strategic question for US policymakers at this point in time.

Jan. 3, 2023

American Defense Priorities After Ukraine

Even though the war will continue into next year, and perhaps beyond, it is time to begin assessing longer-term implications for modern warfare, especially in Europe. It is not too early in this age to draw inferences about how the character of warfare is changing. How can NATO and the United States adapt to best ensure Europe’s stability and advance U.S. interests?

Dec. 21, 2022

Priorities for NATO Partnerships in an Era of Strategic Competition

This study evaluates how select NATO partner states in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region see the strategic value of cooperating with NATO as the Alliance adapts for strategic competition, and it assesses the prospects for future cooperation.

Dec. 12, 2022

America's Great-Power Challenge: Managing Russia's Decline and China's Rise

Russia is in strategic trouble. Vladimir Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s global posture and eroded the carefully honed image of great-power prowess Putin cultivated for two decades. But Russia’s loss of relative power is not necessarily America’s gain. Modern geopolitics has returned to the framework of past multipolar, great-power competitions, the last of which was contested prior to World War II. American policymakers must help manage Moscow’s strategic malpractice in a manner that does not harm Washington’s prospects for success in the long-term Sino-American rivalry.