To Prevent a Great Power War: Conflict Prevention Efforts and Possibilities by the U.S. an

On 14 February, the Journal of Chinese Political Science published an article by Dr. Tom Lynch (INSS) titled, "To Prevent a Great Power War: Conflict Prevention Efforts and Possibilities by the U.S. and China." In it, Dr. Lynch argues that although the preconditions for arms control or risk reduction mechanisms between the U.S. & China are not now present, the pursuit of modest but meaningful political-military confidence building measures (CBMs) could be pursued soon to build the trust for future risk reduction protocols.

The Sino-American great power rivalry in the western Indo-Pacific incorporates the conflicting interests, multiple flashpoints, and potential triggering events that exacerbate the risks of very destructive great power war (GPW). Risk reduction initiatives and arms control agreements may help leaders choose de-escalation over war during triggering events. But most historical requisite preconditions for such measures are not now present between China and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific. However, modest confidence building measures (CBMs) negotiated to enhance enhance political dialogue, recurring political-military forums, reciprocal information exchanges, direct leadership communications, and declaratory commitments without expansive transparency or on-site verification could provide a modest, logical approach to reduce the risks of GPW in the western Indo-Pacific today while simultaneously building-out necessary great power trust for future arms control and risk reduction measures.

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To Prevent a Great Power War: Conflict Prevention Efforts and Possibilities by the U.S. and China