This week, the Center for Disruptive Technology and Future Warfare (DTFW) of the Institute for National Strategic Studies is presenting its first major conference, addressing DTFW at large, and in-depth. In the spirit of this conference, I believe it important to afford a definition of the term(s), and brief view – and implications - of those technologies that are viable for use in current and near-future warfare engagements.

Operational Definitions

In general, disruptive technology can be defined as any innovation that fundamentally alters the status quo of capabilities, and balances of economic, political and military hegemony. As shown in Table 1, disruptive technologies reconfigure operational landscapes by (1) creating novel means of engagement, thereby rendering once-dominant tools obsolete, and leveling otherwise asymmetric power relations; or (2) developing completely new tools with which to leverage power.

Table 1: Dimensions of Disruptive Technology

At present, five interrelated domains of disruptive technology are focal to the conduct of near future warfare; these are: (1) big data; (2) artificial intelligence (AI); (3) nanoengineering and quantum sensing/transmitting; (4) biotechnologies; and (5) unmanned vehicular systems. Alone, each is powerful; yet the most potent effects are yielded when these tools are combined in integrative convergence to enable both kinetic and non-kinetic modes of force and effect(s).

Big Data: The New “Strategic High Ground”

Data has become a form of force capability and multiplication, arguably as valuable as geographic high ground was in conventional wars of the past. Modern operations generate unprecedented streams of information from sensors, satellites, cyber networks, logistics systems, and social media, and accessing, engaging and utilizing these data enables anticipation of adversarial postures and behaviors through pattern recognition; integration of multidomain intelligence into a unified battlespace site-picture; and establishment of direct logistical chains to enable mission precision and resilience.

Yet, data are a double-edged dagger. The same accessibility to information also allows peer-competitors and adversaries to exploit commercial platforms, harvest open-source intelligence, and mask attribution. In this sense, big data can both be an equalizing force and can complicate relative positions of advantage. The military imperative is thus not merely to collect data, but to curate, transform it into actionable knowledge faster than adversaries, and protect these data and the systems used for its collection, storage, retrieval and use from adversarial purloinment.

Artificial Intelligence: From Support to Decision Partner

Artificial intelligence (AI) enables big data to be utilized in operationally meaningful ways. Machine learning, neural networks, and generative systems already support targeting, reconnaissance, and cyber defense. The truly disruptive leap occurs with the iterative realization of the potential for AI to serve as a decision partner in command and control loops that are capable of modeling and predicting an adversary’s behavior and recommending courses of action at speeds exceeding human cognition[1].

In this light, two disruptive dimensions of AI are paramount: (1) Acceleration of the OODA (observe–orient–decide–act) loop whereby AI-enabled systems could compress decision time to seconds, both advancing mission capability, and taxing human oversight; and (2) alignment of risk and deception, whereby AI systems could be accessed and manipulated by adversaries (via  infiltrative data or disenabling or directed algorithms) to create vulnerabilities in function and/or trust. To be sure, the convergence of AI with other domains of technology, such as increasingly autonomous drones, nanoscalar sensors, and/or bioinformatics further enhances its disruptive capability in leveraging power. As we have asserted, for military leaders, the challenge – and opportunity - will be balancing speed with prudence to ensure that human command and control authority remains informed, expeditious, and ethically responsible.[2]^,[3].

Nanoengineering and Quantum Sensing/Transmitting

Nanoscalar and quantum technologies are advancing and broadening, the frontier of surveillance, communication, and stealth. Nanoengineering allows development of sensors smaller than a grain of sand yet capable of detecting chemical, biological, or radiological signatures in real time. Such “ubiquitous sensing” may render concealment nearly impossible, while enabling precision engagement. Quantum sensing and transmitting promise ultra-precise navigation and weapon platform guidance and timing that is independent of GPS reliance; secure communications resistant to interception; and detection capabilities beyond the limits of current radar or sonar systems.

These technologies, while still nascent in use and deployment, suggest a trajectory toward battlespace operationalization, with aims of vastly reducing informational uncertainty and eroding the fog and friction of warfare. Their disruptive potential lies in creating asymmetric leaps: a small nation fielding quantum-secure communications could outpace a technologically superior rival reliant on legacy systems.

Biotechnologies: Weaponizing and Protecting Biology

Biotechnologies encompass genetic editing, synthetic biology, neurotechnology, and biomaterials, and as shown in Table 2, can be employed in both offensive and defensive ways and engagements.

Table 2: Applications of Biotechnology in Warfare

Biotechnology is particularly disruptive because it blurs distinctions between what constitutes tools for healthcare, industrial utility, and what are weaponizable entities. Indeed, the same technologies and products that can be developed and applied to advance medicine and agriculture can also be appropriated for covert, clandestine, or overt military applications. In this regard, biotechnologies are one of the most tactically and strategically complex (and provocative, if not contentious,) and thus ethically problematic, domains of disruption.

Unmanned Vehicular [Drone] Systems

Unmanned air, land, sea (and undersea) systems have become central to the conduct of modern warfare. Their disruptive impact arises from three primary attributes; namely (1) cost asymmetry (e.g.- a drone costing thousands in currency can neutralize a system worth millions); (2) operational persistence (i.e.- drone swarms can saturate defenses, overwhelm radar, and operate in environments too hazardous for humans); and (3) integration with other domains (viz. - AI-guided drones linked via quantum-secure networks and engaging big data analytics could deliver precision kinetic strikes or non-kinetic payloads in electronic warfare and/or dispersal of biotechnologically developed agents)[4]. The radical leveling effects are evident in conflicts where drones can be deployed with explosives or bioagents. The emerging frontier becomes clear when considering how drones can delivery novel biotechnologies (e.g.- drugs, microbes, toxins, nanoscalar materials, electromagnetic weapons); and the use of autopoietic drones with generative AI that are capable of self-repair and adaptive decision-making portends a new milieu of autonomous combat.

Strategic and Ethical Imperatives: Dealing with a Disruptive Future

Disruptive technologies pose challenges that are as great as their opportunities. Individually, these domains disrupt; convergently they can be transformative to the conduct and character of warfare, as big data streams fused into AI models directing unmanned swarms; quantum-linked nano-sensors provide real-time adversary signatures; and biotechnological payloads are delivered with precision in operations designed to impair functions rather than destroy personnel or infrastructure. This convergence amplifies not just kinetic capabilities but also non-kinetic forms of warfare: cyber-bio sabotage, information manipulation, and/or cognitive influence operations that affect decision-making and actions of combatants (and non-combatant civilian targets, alike).

Given the current realities and future possibilities generated by these technologies, I offer the following three recommendations for military planning and operations:

1. Adaptative modification of doctrine. Traditional frameworks of deterrence, proportionality, and escalation must be recalibrated for technologies that blur offensive/defensive lines and complicate attribution.

2. Training toward optimized human-technology integration. Operators and commanders must be cognitively prepared to work with AI partners, interpret quantum-enhanced data, and manage the ethical dilemmas of biotechnology.

3. Focused conjoinment of Department of Defense assets with the defense industrial base and policy institutions toward timely development of programs of international oversight, governance and deterrence. International norms, treaties, and verification regimes must remain apace with technical developments and uses-in-practice, and the military must participatorily contribute to, shape, and not simply respond to emerging convention(s) for guidance and governance.

Disruptive technologies are redefining warfare both by incremental shifts, and by altering the parameters and rules of engagement. In the coming years, those militaries that can integrate big data, AI, nanotech, biotech, and unmanned systems to coherent operational architectures and engagements will incur decisive tactical advantage toward achieving strategic aims. Yet the edge conferred by such disruptive technology is fragile and depends upon the power conferred by successful engagement of the defense industrial bases, both domestically, and in cooperation with allies, as peer-competitors and adversaries rapidly operationalize such tools toward their own means and ends.  Disruption should not be regarded as the result of a singular technologic development or use, but rather a continuous condition that is evolving, and in so doing likely revolutionizing the capabilities and character of warfare. The task is to anticipate, adapt, and ethically apply those emerging technologies that can level, transform, and thereby shape the future battlescape (in both kinetic and non-kinetic dimensions) more profoundly than any single weapon system in history.

Disclaimer.

The views and opinions expressed in this essay are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Department of Defense, United States government or the National Defense University.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Elise Annett for assistance with this essay, and special thanks to current CDTFW Non-resident Research Fellows John Bitterman, Dr Edl Schamiloglu, Dr John R. Shook, Dr. Ashok Vaseashta, and Dr. Nicholas Wright for their ongoing work in these domains.

Dr. James Giordano is the Director of the Center for Disruptive Technology and Future Warfare of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University.