RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Through its publications, INSS provides rigorous, forward‑looking research and analysis on critical national security issues that support the joint warfighter and inform Department of War decision‑makers.

 

Research and Commentary

News | Oct. 16, 2024

China’s Forever War: What If a Taiwan Invasion Fails?

By Joel Wuthnow Strategic Forum 312

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Cover of Strategic Forum 312: China's Forever War: What If a Taiwan Invasion Fails?
Cover of Strategic Forum 312
Cover of Strategic Forum 312: China's Forever War: What If a Taiwan Invasion Fails?
Photo By: NDU Press
VIRIN: 241016-D-HL629-0068

Key Points

• A failed People’s Republic of China (PRC) attempt to seize Taiwan would only be one step in a much longer conflict. Beijing will learn, rebuild, and may try again.

• Beijing would be more risk acceptant if its leaders face threats of removal. This could invite further escalation to quell domestic critics and reset battlefield conditions.

• In a post-invasion aftermath, deterrence must be quickly reestablished, but in such a way that does not imperil the PRC leadership’s survival.

Joel Wuthnow is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (CSCMA).

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