Moscow is actively using the conflict in Ukraine to advance its vision of a different international order. This vision emphasises a world fragmented into spheres of influence centred on a handful of ‘civilisational states’ embodying distinct political cultures not necessarily compatible with liberalism and democracy. Russia uses its own sphere of influence in Eurasia as the incubator of an alternative set of norms and institutions that it seeks to socialise globally. This Russian vision appeals to other revisionist powers, notably China and Iran, which support Russia’s war in Ukraine largely out of a desire to diminish US influence and consolidate their own regional spheres. Elements of it also appeal across the Global South, now a key arena for competition over the future global order. The outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine is perhaps the most important determinant of what the coming world order will look like.

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