Defense Threat Reduction Agency | Nov. 21, 2025
Implications of a PRC Shift to a Launch-on-Warning Nuclear Posture
Dr. David C. Logan and Dr. Phillip C. Saunders
This Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) study assesses the prospects and implications of China’s adoption of a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture for U.S. national security objectives. It evaluates China’s ability to adopt a LOW posture, identifies the key design decisions, examines what a Chinese LOW posture might look like, and assesses the implications and identifies potential mitigation measures.