Editor’s Note: As the United States reduces its emphasis on counterterrorism and focuses more on China in particular, policymakers have emphasized the need to accept more risk. What, however, does risk actually mean? National Defense University’s Kim Cragin examines current frameworks for thinking about risk and assesses how to think about risk and the threat of terrorism.

Daniel Byman

A consensus has emerged among U.S. civilian and military officials that the United States must prioritize deterring Chinese aggression. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, noted that China represents “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted,” and Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has expressed concern to Congress about China outpacing U.S. defense production. Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, has noted that, to facilitate the U.S. focus on China, Washington will rely more on allies “to help address military shortfalls both vis-à-vis Beijing as well as in other theaters against other potential opponents, particularly Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorists.” In other words, the United States will accept some risk from Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups to deter China.

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