Tension across the Taiwan Strait has raised fears that Beijing and Taipei could soon find themselves at war. Most observers imagine two possible avenues that could lead to conflict. In a so-called war of choice, Beijing could try to capture Taiwan by force after careful consideration of the economic, military, and political risks. Such an aggressive action without explicit provocation would reflect Chinese leaders’ judgment that the island could be taken at minimal cost. Alternately, Beijing might launch a so-called war of necessity if it felt that Taiwan had crossed a political redline that permanently threatened China’s control of the island. A formal declaration of independence in Taipei, for example, would likely trigger a military response from Beijing regardless of the costs.

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Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a Senior Research Fellow in the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs.