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News | Dec. 4, 2022

A South China Sea Conflict and the ROK's Cooperation with the United States

By Choong-Koo Lee Korean Journal of Defense Analysis

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200703-N-RF825-1236 SAN BERNARDINO STRAIT (July 3, 2020) The Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transits the San Bernardino Strait, crossing from the Philippine Sea into the South China Sea. Ronald Reagan is the flagship of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5. The Nimitz and Ronald Reagan carrier strike groups are conducting dual-carrier operations as the Nimitz Carrier Strike Force. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jason Tarleton/Released)
200703-N-RF825-1236.jpg
200703-N-RF825-1236
200703-N-RF825-1236 SAN BERNARDINO STRAIT (July 3, 2020) The Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transits the San Bernardino Strait, crossing from the Philippine Sea into the South China Sea. Ronald Reagan is the flagship of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5. The Nimitz and Ronald Reagan carrier strike groups are conducting dual-carrier operations as the Nimitz Carrier Strike Force. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jason Tarleton/Released)
Photo By: Petty Officer 3rd Class Jason Tarleton
VIRIN: 200703-N-RF825-1236

Considering the ROK's regional cooperation with the U.S., mutual solidarity with ASEAN countries, and the SLOC security in the South China Sea, the ROK will support U.S. diplomatic efforts to bolster international norms in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the ROK might be cautious about its full-blown or military support to the U.S., which could result in China's diplomatic protests and economic reprisals. In this regard, the ROK might prefer to participate in a joint statement through a NATO or UN-level entity rather than through the Quad-Plus that entails a significant risk of Chinese retaliation against regional neighbors. At the same time, the ROK will likely enhance its ODA to ASEAN countries after the gray zone crisis and strengthen its maritime security cooperation with the Philippines but is unlikely to participate in a U.S.-led group sail related to freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.

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Mr. Choong-Koo Lee is an INSS Visiting Scholar from KIDA. The views expressed are the authors own and do not reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.