Since the release of the U.S. 28-point draft peace plan in late November, many officials and observers have suggested that a ceasefire in Ukraine may be on the horizon. Undergirding this view is a growing consensus that Ukraine is losing the war as its troops cede territory and its economy and political order come under increasing strain. Indeed, as the war approaches its fourth year, Kyiv faces mounting attacks on critical infrastructure, recruiting challenges, and a corruption scandal that already forced the resignation of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff. These challenges provide the backdrop to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations, and seemingly support Moscow’s narrative that time is on its side and that Kyiv should therefore sign a ceasefire negotiated by the Kremlin with the Trump administration.

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Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for Strategy and Military Power, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University.