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News | Nov. 21, 2025

Implications of a PRC Shift to a Launch-on-Warning Nuclear Posture

By Dr. David C. Logan and Dr. Phillip C. Saunders Defense Threat Reduction Agency

This Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) study assesses the prospects and implications of China’s adoption of a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture for U.S. national security objectives. It evaluates China’s ability to adopt a LOW posture, identifies the key design decisions, examines what a Chinese LOW posture might look like, and assesses the implications and identifies potential mitigation measures. 

China has put in place all three elements needed to support a rudimentary LOW posture: 1) early warning systems capable of detecting, characterizing, and tracking an incoming nuclear strike; 2) alerted nuclear forces that can be launched on short-notice; and 3) command and control structures that can rapidly process the information provided by early warning systems, make decisions about whether and how to respond, and disseminate launch orders. However, the PLA does not appear to have shifted its nuclear posture to LOW yet.

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Dr. David C. Logan is an Assistant Professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is the Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University.