After Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the ensuing Gaza war, and regional escalatory exchanges, Iran’s regional policy, strategic calculus, and deterrence posture have been challenged in unprecedented ways. Israel’s military retaliation over the first year of the war not only targeted Hamas’s strongholds, but also extended beyond Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Israel targeted key leaders and infrastructure linked to Iran as well as a network of regional non- state actors—its long-cultivated “Axis of Resistance”—probing limitations in the alliance’s commitments, coordination and strategy.1
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