Dr. Clint Work provided commentary on the U.S.-ROK alliance for the Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan's oldest daily newspapers. This excerpt has been translated.
Under the Trump administration, there is a possibility that the reorganization of the U.S. military in South Korea will be transferred to Taiwan in an emergency, and the transfer of the military's wartime operation control (command) to the South Korean military may proceed. This is because the voice of "limited U.S. resources should be concentrated in China" is growing within the administration. Clint Work, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and Military Power at the National Institute of Strategy at the National Defense University, points out the possibility that the progressive (innovative) Lee Jae-myung administration, which will be launched in South Korea, may face various security challenges.
The United States and South Korea say that if the three conditions are met, they will transfer the control of wartime operations to South Korea.
The United States and South Korea made a plan to transfer command more than 10 years ago. The relocation requires three conditions: "South Korea's ability to counter the threat of North Korea's nuclear and missiles," "South Korea's ability to lead the U.S.-South Korea alliance to jointly defend North Korea's threat," and "the stability of the environment on the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas".
Regarding the first two conditions, the two countries said that between the late 2010s and the early 1920s, South Korea had met its initial operational capabilities and made some progress towards full operational capabilities. However, more evaluation and certification are required to acquire full mission-performance capabilities. The third condition is more political and room for interpretation, so I think it will be possible to respond flexibly to a certain extent.
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Dr. Clint Work is a Research Fellow in the INSS Center for Strategy and Military Power.