Key Points
• A failed People’s Republic of China (PRC) attempt to seize Taiwan would only be one step in a much longer conflict. Beijing will learn, rebuild, and may try again.
• Beijing would be more risk acceptant if its leaders face threats of removal. This could invite further escalation to quell domestic critics and reset battlefield conditions.
• In a post-invasion aftermath, deterrence must be quickly reestablished, but in such a way that does not imperil the PRC leadership’s survival.
Joel Wuthnow is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (CSCMA).
READ MORE >>