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News | Sept. 7, 2021

Afghanistan Will Put Russia's Regional Ambitions to the Test

By Jeff Mankoff WPR

A U.S. Air Force KC-10 Extender lands at Naval Station (NAVSTA) Rota carrying evacuees from Afghanistan, Sept. 1, 2021.
NAVAL STATION ROTA, Spain (Sept. 1, 2021) A U.S. Air Force KC-10 Extender lands at Naval Station (NAVSTA) Rota carrying evacuees from Afghanistan, Sept. 1, 2021. NAVSTA Rota is currently supporting the Department of State mission to facilitate the safe departure and relocation of U.S. citizens, Special Immigration Visa recipients, and vulnerable populations from Afghanistan. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Nathan Carpenter)
A U.S. Air Force KC-10 Extender lands at Naval Station (NAVSTA) Rota carrying evacuees from Afghanistan, Sept. 1, 2021.
210901-N-CO914-1001
NAVAL STATION ROTA, Spain (Sept. 1, 2021) A U.S. Air Force KC-10 Extender lands at Naval Station (NAVSTA) Rota carrying evacuees from Afghanistan, Sept. 1, 2021. NAVSTA Rota is currently supporting the Department of State mission to facilitate the safe departure and relocation of U.S. citizens, Special Immigration Visa recipients, and vulnerable populations from Afghanistan. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Nathan Carpenter)
Photo By: MC1 Nathan Carpenter
VIRIN: 210901-N-CO914-1001

While the failure of the United States’ two-decade campaign to reshape Afghanistan was a source of no little schadenfreude in Moscow, the collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s U.S.-backed government has thrust Russia into a challenging position. Even as President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia has no intention of deploying troops to Afghanistan itself, the potential for radicalization and violence around Russia’s borders is foisting greater responsibility for regional security on Moscow at a time of mounting domestic difficulties

The Ghani government’s collapse and the departure of U.S. forces from central Eurasia, seemingly for good, also offers Russia a window of opportunity to bolster its role as a powerbroker both within and around Afghanistan, advance a vision of regional connectivity that boosts its own interests, and consolidate its political-military influence in neighboring Central Asia. All of these steps, however, would require more resources than Russia’s leadership has thus far been willing to invest, and greater risk than it has been willing to take on...

Read the rest at World Politics Review - 

Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, Center for Strategic Research at National Defense University. The views expressed are the authors own and do not reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.