The US Department of Defense assesses that China has the capability to execute a blockade or punitive missile strike against Taiwan. Why, then, has Beijing thus far not deployed these options?1 Why might China choose not to launch an invasion of the island after 2027—the date by which Xi Jinping has reportedly given the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready?2 Any use of force would entail economic and social risks, but there are also potential military consequences that must be considered. Even scenarios with low impact on PLA capabilities would threaten escalation that Beijing could not control, especially if the United States were to intervene. An invasion could devolve into a quagmire, much as Russia has experienced in Ukraine, and this would threaten not only China’s military security but also the security of the regime.
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