On 12 March, Dr. Thomas Lynch III, retired U.S. Army Col., and distinguished research fellow at the Institute of National Strategic Studies at the U.S. National Defense University, sat down with NTD's Steve Lance for an interview to discuss how effectively the U.S. military's Operation Epic Fury is performing, and its implications for the balance of power between the U.S. and its adversaries Russia and China.
Lynch said the U.S. military has executed precise and effective strikes in the operation. China is closely studying this conflict, similar to how it analyzed Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom, but now with 25 years of added military modernization. Both sides in Iran are expending massive quantities of weapons, and Beijing is evaluating U.S. vulnerabilities, endurance in a prolonged fight, and opportunities to erode American power in a future confrontation.
Lynch said China recognizes it lacks the military capacity for direct Middle East action and may instead use diplomatic tools or supply Iran with dual-use equipment like drones and missile components. He views this as typical great-power behavior, and a prolonged Iran war could mark the 21st century’s second major proxy conflict.
Lynch explained that China was caught off-guard by U.S. military action against Iran’s regime and maintains its policy of non-intervention in sovereign affairs while staying non-committal on the regime’s brutality. Drawing from the 2011 Libya experience, including the evacuation of Chinese nationals from Libya and Egypt, China has since built up regional assets and sharply reduced the number of its citizens in the region, who might need evacuation, Lynch said.
Lynch also said China has built at least a 120-day supply of fossil fuels that would fuel nearly all of its industries, should it lose its oil supply from Iran. He also discussed President Donald Trump's executive actions and National Defense Strategy that indicate the U.S. is aligning partnerships with leaders in the Western Hemisphere who will join the America First framework.
Watch the interview