Joel Wuthnow

Areas of Expertise:  China; Asia-Pacific Region

Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. 

His recent books and monographs include China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (Polity, 2025, with Phillip C. Saunders), Sea Dragons: Special Operations and Chinese Military Strategy (Naval War College Press, 2025, with John Chen), Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (NDU Press, 2022, lead editor), and Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (NDU Press, 2022). His research and commentary has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, The New York Times, and in edited volumes. 

Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science). He is proficient in Mandarin. 

Selected Publications:  

Books and Monographs

• China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (Polity, 2025, with Phillip C. Saunders)
• Sea Dragons: Special Operations and Chinese Military Strategy (Naval War College Press, 2025, with John Chen)
• Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (NDU, China Strategic Perspectives 16, September 2022) 
• Crossing the Strait: China's Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (NDU Press, 2022) (lead editor, with Derek Grossman, Phillip C. Saunders, Andrew Scobell, and Andrew N.D. Yang)
• The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (NDU Press, 2021) (lead editor, with Arthur Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, Andrew Scobell, and Andrew N.D. Yang)
• System Overload: Can China's Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan? (NDU, China Strategic Perspectives 15, June 2020)
• China's Other Army: The People's Armed Police in an Era of Reform (NDU, China Strategic Perspectives 14, April 2019)
• Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (NDU Press, 2019) (co-editor, with Phillip C. Saunders, Arthur Ding, Andrew Scobell, and Andrew Yang) 
• Raging Waters: China, India, Bangladesh, and Brahmaputra River Politics (Marine Corps University Press, 2018) (with Satu Limaye and Nilanthi Samaranayake)
• Chinese Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative: Strategic Rationales, Risks, and Implications (NDU, China Strategic Perspectives 12, October 2017) 
• Chinese Military Reforms in the Age of Xi Jinping: Drivers, Challenges, and Implications (NDU, China Strategic Perspectives 10, March 2017) (with Phillip. C. Saunders) 
• Chinese Diplomacy and the UN Security Council (Routledge; paperback 2015) 

Book Chapters 

• “Stabilizing the Boat: Revisiting Party-Army Relations Under Xi Jinping,” in Benjamin Frohman and Jeremy Rausch (eds.), The PLA in a Complex Security Environment: Preparing for High Seas and Choppy Waters (Washington, DC: NBR, 2025), 41-64
• "Joint Logistics Force Support to Theater Commands," in George R. Schatzer and Roger Cliff (eds.), PLA Logistics and Sustainment (U.S. Army War College Press, 2023), 17-32
• "Securitisation and Governance in the Xi Jinping Era," in Frank N. Pieke and Bert Hofman (eds.), CPC Futures: The New Era of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (National University of Singapore, 2022), 149-156
• "Who Does What? Chinese Command and Control in a Taiwan Scenario," in Joel Wuthnow et al., (eds.), Crossing the Strait (NDU, 2022), 277-303
• "Chinese Expeditionary Operations: Is There a Role for Joint Logistics?" in Roger Cliff and Roy Kamphausen (eds.), Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA (U.S. Army War College Press, 2022)
• "PLA Operational Lessons from UN Peacekeeping," in Joel Wuthnow et al. (eds.), The PLA Beyond Borders (NDU, 2021), 236-262
• "A More Cohesive Force: Enabling Joint Operations in the PLA," in Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Tiffany Ma (eds.,), Securing the China Dream: The PLA's Role in a Time of Reform and Change (NBR, 2020), 35-52 (with Phillip C. Saunders) 
• "A Modern Major General: Building Joint Commanders in the PLA," in Phillip C. Saunders et al. (eds.), Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA (NDU Press, 2019), 293-323 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "Large and In Charge: Civil-Military Relations under Xi Jinping," in Phillip C. Saunders et al. (eds.), Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA (NDU Press, 2019), 519-555 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "China's Belt and Road: One Initiative, Three Strategies," in Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills (eds.), Strategic Asia 2019: China's Expanding Strategic Ambitions (NBR, 2019), 211-246
• "A View from the United States on Sino-U.S. Relations," in Gilbert Rozman (ed.), The Sino-ROK-U.S. Triangle (KEI, 2017), 37-54

Journal Articles

• “A New Step in China’s Military Reform,” Joint Force Quarterly 117 (2025) 
• “More Red But Still Expert: Party-Army Relations Under Xi Jinping,” Journal of Contemporary China(2024) (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "Selective Engagements: Chinese Naval Diplomacy and U.S.-China Competition," Naval War College Review 76:1 (Winter 2023), 79-101 (with Margaret Baughman)
• "Who Commands the Gun? Mobilization and Use of China's Armed Police," The China Quarterly 253 (March 2023), 74-89
• "A South China Sea Conflict and the U.S.-ROK Alliance," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 34:4 (December 2022), 657-670
• "Chinese Perspectives on U.S. Strategy in Asia, 2017-2021," Asian Perspective 46:3 (Summer 2022), 401-422
• "China's Military Strategy for a 'New Era': Some Change, More Continuity, and Tantalizing Hints," Journal of Strategic Studies (March 2022) (with M. Taylor Fravel)
• "Defending Taiwan in an Expanded Competitive Space," Joint Force Quarterly 104 (January 2022), 89-94
• "A New Era for Chinese Military Logistics," Asian Security 17:3 (December 2021), 279-293
• "China's 'New-Type' Private Think Tanks: Is 'New' Better?" Journal of Chinese Political Science 26:2 (May 2021) (with Dingding Chen), 373-391
• "Contested Strategies: China, the United States, and the Indo-Pacific Security Dilemma," China International Strategy Review 1:1 (June 2019), 1-12
• "U.S. 'Minilateralism' in Asia and China's Responses: A New Security Dilemma?" Journal of Contemporary China 28:115 (January 2019), 133-150
• "Asian Security without the United States? Examining China's Security Strategy in Maritime and Continental Asia," Asian Security 14:3 (October 2018), 230-245
• "China's New 'Black Box': Problems and Prospects for the Central National Security Commission," The China Quarterly, Vol. 232 (November 2017), 886-903
• "Beyond Imposing Costs: Recalibrating U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea," Asia Policy 24 (July 2017), 123-138
• "A Brave New World for Chinese Joint Operations," Journal of Strategic Studies 40:1-2 (February 2017), 169-195
• "China's Goldwater-Nichols? Assessing PLA Organizational Reform" Joint Force Quarterly 82 (July 2016), 68-75 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• “Barriers, Springboards, and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains’” The China Quarterly, Vol. 225 (March 2016), 1-22 (with Andrew S. Erickson)

Shorter Analytic Reports 

• “Can Xi Jinping Control the PLA?” China Leadership Monitor 83 (2025) 
• “China’s Forever War: What If a Taiwan Invasion Fails?” NDU Strategic Forum 312 (2024) 
• “Getting to World Class: Can China’s Military Persevere?” China Leadership Monitor 79 (2024)
• Bolder Gambits, Same Challenges: Chinese Strategists Assess the Biden Admin's Indo-Pacific Strategy, China Leadership Monitor, September 2023 (with Elliot Ji) 
• Xi's New Central Military Commission: A War Council for Taiwan? China Leadership Monitor, December 2022
• Rightsizing Chinese Military Lessons from Ukraine, INSS Strategic Forum 311, September 2022
• Chinese Special Operations in a Large-Scale Island Landing, CMSI China Maritime Reports 18, January 2022 (with John Chen)
• PLA Overseas Operations in 2035: Inching Toward a Global Combat Capability, INSS Strategic Forum 309, May 2021 (with Phillip C. Saunders and Ian Burns McCaslin)
• Just Another Paper Tiger? Chinese Perspectives on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, INSS Strategic Forum 305, June 2020 
• The PLA Beyond Asia: China's Growing Military Presence in the Red Sea Region, INSS Strategic Forum 303, January 2020
• China's Goldwater-Nichols: Assessing PLA Organizational Reforms, INSS Strategic Forum 294, April 2016 (with Phillip C. Saunders) 
• Posing Problems without an Alliance: China-Iran Relations after the Nuclear Deal, INSS Strategic Forum 290, February 2016

Commentary 

• “How China Could Counter U.S. Intervention in War Over Taiwan,” War on the Rocks, May 27, 2025
• “Xi Can’t Trust His Own Miliary,” The New York Times, May 6, 2025 (with Phillip C. Saunders) 
• “China’s New Info Warriors: The Information Support Force Emerges,” War on the Rocks, June 24, 2024
• “Shield, Sword, or Symbol: Analyzing Xi Jinping’s ‘Strategic Deterrence,’” The Brookings Institution, March 7, 2024
• "Why Xi Jinping May Not Be Itching for a War with Taiwan," PacNet #82, October 31, 2023
• "Why Xi Jinping Doesn't Trust His Military," Foreign Affairs, September 26, 2023
• "India Can Help Draft New Brahmaputra Water Treaty," The Hindustan Times, April 28, 2023 (with Nilanthi Samaranayake and Satu Limaye)
• "How to Out-Deter China," Foreign Affairs​, March 24, 2023
• "Is China's Military Learning Anything from Ukraine?" The MOC, February 24, 2023
• "How Beijing Approaches Crisis Management," CSIS Interpret: China, November 22, 2022 (with Amanda Hsiao and Sungmin Cho)
• "The Weakness Behind China's Strong Facade," Foreign Affairs, November 10, 2022 (with Bonny Lin)
• "Will PLA Modernization Continue Apace in Xi's Second Decade?" China Brief, September 20, 2022
• "Pushing Back Against China's New Normal in the Taiwan Strait," War on the Rocks, August 16, 2022 (with Bonny Lin)
• "Where Will the People's Liberation Army Go Next?" Asia Policy, April 28, 2022
• "A New Chinese National Security Bureaucracy Emerges," China Brief, November 23, 2021
• "What I Learned from the PLA's Latest Strategy Textbook," China Brief, May 25, 2021 
• "Improving US-China Crisis Communications--Thinking Beyond the Air and Sea," PacNet #25, May 21, 2021
• "China's Shifting Attitude on the Indo-Pacific Quad," War on the Rocks, April 7, 2021
• "A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization," China Brief, March 15, 2021 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "Brahmaputra: A Conflict-Prone River Takes a Step Backwards," War on the Rocks, December 23, 2020 (with Satu Limaye and Nilanthi Samaranayake) 
• "PLA's Capability Expands," East Asia Forum Quarterly, December 14, 2020
• "America Has Created a 'China-Iran Collaboration' Monster," The National Interest, July 18, 2020 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "China's Inopportune Pandemic Assertivenss," PacNet #33, June 9, 2020
• "Responding to the Epidemic in Wuhan: Insights into Chinese Military Logistics," China Brief, April 13, 2020
• "China's Military Claims to Be Virus-Free," Foreign Policy, March 20, 2020 
• "Will China Strengthen Iran's Military Machine in 2020?" The National Interest, January 16, 2020 
• "The Re-Conquerors of Hong Kong? A Primer on China's People's Armed Police," War on the Rocks, August 23, 2019 
• "Deciphering China's Intentions: What Can Open Sources Tell Us?" The Asan Forum, July 29, 2019 
• "Shangri-La 2019: Shanahan's Turn in the Bully Pulpit," The National Interest, May 30, 2019
• "China's 'New' Academy of Military Science: A Revolution in Theoretical Affairs?" China Brief, January 18, 2019
• "President Trump, Don't Forget the United Nations," East Asia Forum, November 3, 2018
• "Why China Discounts the Indo-Pacific Quad," PacNet #55, August 7, 2018
• "Doklam, One Year Later: China's Long Game in the Himalayas," War on the Rocks, June 7, 2018 (with Satu Limaye and Nilanthi Samaranayake) 
• "From Friend to Foe-ish: Washington's Negative Turn on the Belt and Road Initiative," The Asan Forum 6:3 (May-June 2018)
• "Major Progress and Unfinished Business: China's Military Under Xi Jinping," Global Asia 13:1 (Spring 2018, with Phillip C. Saunders), 13-17 
• "China's Overseas Basing: Will the PLA Follow the Renminbi?" The National Interest, February 17, 2018
• "China's Military Has a Discipline Problem. Here Is How Xi Jinping Is Trying to Fix It," The National Interest, November 12, 2017 (with Phillip C. Saunders) 
• "Did China Use Water as a Weapon in the Doklam Standoff?" War on the Rocks, October 4, 2017
• "China's Russia Problem on North Korea" PacNet #56, August 17, 2017
• "Did India Miscalculate China's Red Lines in Australia Snub?" The National Interest, June 7, 2017
• "The CMC General Office: Recentralizing Power in the PLA," China Brief, May 11, 2017   
• "From Green to Purple: Can the Chinese Military Become More Joint?" War on the Rocks, March 30, 2017 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "PLA Reform in 2017: Likely Directions and Implications for Taiwan," Global Taiwan Brief, March 8, 2017 
• "China Cannot Be Expected to Punish North Korea," The National Interest, February 18, 2017
• "China and India's Slow-Moving Path to 'Water Wars'" The National Interest, November 1, 2016 (with Satu Limaye and Nilanthi Samaranayake)
• "Should Taiwan Fear China's New Rocket Force?" Policy Forum, September 2, 2016  (with David Logan)
• "China's Calibrated Response to the South China Sea is Firm (Yet Flexible)," The National Interest, August 17, 2016
• "China's Much-Heralded NSC Has Disappeared," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2016
• "What Do China's Military Reforms Mean for Taiwan?" NBR Commentary, May 19, 2016 (with Phillip C. Saunders)
• "Water War: This River Could Sink China-India Relations," The National Interest, April 18, 2016
• "Warning: Is China Pivoting Back to North Korea?" The National Interest, March 8, 2016
• "Why Islands Still Matter in Asia," The National Interest, February 5, 2016 (with Andrew S. Erickson)
• "Are Chinese Arms About to Flood Into Iran?" The National Interest, January 13, 2016

Testimony

• "Transforming China's National Security Architecture in the Xi Era," Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 27, 2022
• "Projecting Strength in a Time of Uncertainty: China's Military in 2020," Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, September 9, 2020
• "Securing China's Belt and Road Initiative," Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 25, 2018