Thomas F. Lynch III

Areas of Expertise:  Asia and the Indo-Pacific (South and Central Asia); Great Power Competition (GPC); Middle East and North Africa (Gulf Arab States); Counter-terrorism

Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for Strategy and Military Power (CSMP) at the Institute of National Strategic Studies (INSS) of the National Defense University (NDU) in Washington, D.C.  Dr. Lynch researches, writes, lectures, teaches, and provides in-person expertise during the development and high-level execution of Joint warfighting exercises and simulations. His work for senior Department of Defense, Joint Staff and Combatant Command leaders focuses on the topics of Great Power Competition (GPC) & geopolitics, India’s strategic rise, Afghanistan-Pakistan & wider South Asia, the Gulf Arab States, and the past & future trajectory of radical Islam. His primary ongoing research is focused on GPC and on India’s strategic rise and implications for Indo-Pacific security and stability. Dr. Lynch has published four books including as editor of the forthcoming Strategic Assessment 2025: Great Power Competition at Mid-Decade (NDU Press, 2025). He also has published over twenty book chapters and more than forty feature monographs and journal articles.

Dr. Lynch joined INSS after a 28 year career in the active duty U.S. Army, serving in a variety of command and staff positions as an armor/cavalry officer and as a senior level politico-military analyst including as a Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff & Deputy Director of the Chairman’s Advisory & Initiatives Group; Commander of the U.S. Army War Theater Support Group in Doha, Qatar; Director of the Advisory Group for the Commander, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM); and Military Special Assistant to the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan.

Dr. Lynch provides expert commentary on an array of public-facing media including as a feature analyst on national and international podcasts, webinars, videos, and television & radio appearances. He is a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He holds a B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, a Master’s in Public Administration (MPA) and a Masters (M.A.) & Ph.D. in International Relations from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.

Selected Warfighter Support Activities & Publications

Warfighter Support Simulations and Exercises:

• EXERCISE ELITE CONSTELLATION 2025 - THE ROAD TO WAR (2025)
• EXERCISE ELITE CONSTELLATION 2025 - SETTING THE GLOBE (2024-2025)
• EXERCISE CYBER SHIELD 2022
• RCNSC WARFIGHTING SIMULATION - SINO-INDIAN CONFLICT (2016-2019)
• USSTRATCOM TTX 15-1 - THE ROAD TO WAR (2014-2015)
• EXERCISE INTRINSIC ACTION 2014
• EXERCISE INTRINSIC ACTION 2013
• EXERCISE INTRINSIC ACTION 2012

   

Books:

• Strategic Assessment 2025: Great Power Competition at Mid-Decade. Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU-Press, Forthcoming in 2025)
• Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition. Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU-Press, 2020)
• Military Factors and Conventional Arms Control: The Impact of Technology and Doctrine Upon Conventional Military Offensiveness and Arms Control. (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press Dissertation Service, 1995).
• Understanding International Relations: The Value of Alternative Lenses. Thomas F. Lynch III, Asa Clark & Ricky Waddell eds. (New York, NY: McGraw Hill, 1993)

Book Chapters:

• "Chapter 24 - The Future of Great Power Competition," in The Routledge Handbook of Great Power Competition, eds. Brian H.C. Fong and Ian Chong (Oxford, UK: Routledge, 2025), 303-326.
• “Past Eras of Great Power Competition: Historical Insights and Implications,” with Frank Hoffman in Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2020) 17-43.
• “Contemporary Great Power Geostrategic Dynamics: Relations and Strategies,” with Phillip C. Saunders in Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2020) 45-72.
• “Contemporary Great Power Geostrategic Dynamics” Competitive Elements and Tool Sets,” with Phillip C. Saunders in Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2020) 73-104.
• “The Indo-Pacific Competitive Space: China’s Vision and the Post-World War II American Order,” with James Przystup and Phillip C. Saunders in Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2020) 185-218.
• “Conclusion: Realities, Imperatives, and Principles in a New Era of Great Power Competition,” in Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, Thomas F. Lynch III ed. (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2020) 309-333.
• “Afghanistan in the Regional Security Interplay Context,” with Andrey Kazantsev in Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment (New York: East West Institute, 2020) 41-66.
• "South Asia," in R.D. Hooker, Jr. ed. Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, December 2016), 267-296. 
• “New Caliphate in West Asia: Impact on al Qaeda’s Core, Global Jihad and Jihad in South Asia,” in Dhruv C. Katoch and Shakti Sinha eds. Terrorism Today: Aspects, Challenges and Responses (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2016), pp.104-119.
• "The 80 Percent Solution: The Strategic Defeat of bin Laden’s al-Qaeda and Implications for South Asian Security," in Peter Bergen ed. Talibanistan: Negotiating the Borders Between Terror, Politics and Religion (London: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 388-430.

Articles:

• "Cyberspace: Great Power Competition in a Fragmenting Domain," Orbis, Volume 68, Issue 4, 607-623 (Fall 2024). 
• “America’s Great Power Challenge: Managing Russia’s Decline and China’s Rise,” Foreign Policy Research Institute [FPRI] – Feature Analysis, December 5, 2022.
• “Book Review - A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times,” Joint Force Quarterly 107, October 2022.
• “Can the West Manage Russia’s Decline?” The National Interest (October 2022)
• “Deconstructing the Collapse of Afghanistan National Security and Defense Forces,” Parameters 52, No. 3 (Fall 2022)
• “The New Era of Great Power Competition and the Biden Administration: Emerging Patterns and Principles,” Joint Force Quarterly 103 (October 2021)
• “The Growing Entente between India and Japan,” The National Interest (March/April 2019)
• “The Decades-Long ‘Double-Double Game’: Pakistan, the United States, and the Taliban,” Military Review (July/August 2018)
• “Balancing China & Transcending Pax-Americana: India and Japan as Emerging Strategic Bookends,” The ASAN Forum (July 2018)
• “The U.S. Military and Countering ISIS,” Middle East Institute – Policy Memo, October 1, 2015.
• “The Impact of ISIS on Global Salafism and South Asian Jihad,” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, Volume 19, The Hudson Institute, August 2015.
• “After ISIS: Fully Reappraising U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” The Washington Quarterly, 38:2, 119-144 (July 2015).
• "Post-2014 Afghanistan & the Looming Consequences of Strategic Misappreciation," Orbis, Vol. 59, No 2 (Spring 2015)
• “Transnational Movements and Terrorism,” with Mark Stout and T.X. Hammes, Joint Forces Quarterly, Issue 54 (April 2009).
• “Afghan Dilemmas: Staying Power,” The American Interest, Vol. III, No. 5, (May/June 2008).
• “NATO Unbound: Out-of-Area Operations in the Greater Middle East,” Orbis, Vol. 49, No. 1 (Winter 2005).

Monographs:

• The Inevitable U.S. Return and the Future of Great Power Competition in South Asia, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 42, December 2022
• Russia and Saudi Arabia: Old Disenchantments, New Challenges with John W. Parker, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 35, June 2021.
• India-Japan Strategic Cooperation and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 24, March 2017. 
• India’s Naxalite Insurgency: History, Trajectory and Implications for U.S.-India Security Cooperation on Domestic Counterinsurgency, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 22, October 2016.
• The Return of Foreign Fighters to Central Asia, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 21, October 2016.
• The Islamic State as Icarus: A Critical Assessment of an Untenable Threat, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS), October 2015.    
• Sources of Terrorism and Rational Counters, Trends Research and Advisory Papers (UAE), (January 2015).  
• Crisis Stability and Nuclear Exchange Risks on the Subcontinent: Major Trends and the Iran Factor, National Defense University-Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives 14, November 2013.
• The 80 Percent Solution: The Strategic Defeat of bin Laden’s al-Qaeda and Implications for South Asian Security, National Security Studies Program Policy Paper, New America Foundation, February 2012.
• Sunni and Shia Terrorism – Differences that Matter. Occasional Paper Series- Combating Terrorism Center (CTC), West Point, New York, December 2008.

Op-Eds & Podcasts:

• “Great power competition in the 21st century: More than a buzzword?” Finnish Institute of International Affairs [webinar], December 11, 2024
• “Great Power Competition and the War in Ukraine: Putin’s Possible Objectives and Potential Next Moves,” Capitol Report [podcast], February 20, 2023.
• “Great Power rivalry context of the Chinese spy balloon,” Capitol Report [podcast], February 17, 2023.
• “The Future US-Russia Relations After the Ukraine War,” Capitol Report on Gettr [podcast], January 10, 2023.
• “Assessing the World’s Dominant Superpowers,” Capitol Report [podcast], January 5, 2023.
• “Deconstructing the Collapse of Afghanistan National Security and Defense Forces,” US Army War College - Conversations on Strategy [podcast], September 12, 2022.
• “Great Power Competition and Beijing’s Olympic Moment,” Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) - Asia Analysis, January 25, 2022.
• "The Status of China-India Relations one Year After Doklam," ChinaFile (June14, 2018). 
• "U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis: A Visit to India," South Asia Monitor (October 4, 2017). 
• “A Failure of Strategic Vision: U.S. Policy and the Doklam Border Dispute” Strategic Insights (September 6, 2017).
• "U.S. Policy and the Doklam Border Dispute: A Missed Opportunity," South Asia Monitor (September 4, 2017).
• "What bin Laden Taught Us About Jihad in Pakistan," War on the Rocks (June 4, 2015)
• "Advice for France in its 'War on Terror'" with Cindy Storer, Mark Stout, Stephen Tankel & Clint Watts (January 27, 2015)